Why a War in Iran Spells Higher Grocery Bills in the USA
You’ve probably heard the news: the US has attacked Iran. But what does that really mean for everyday Americans? Beyond the headlines and the debates, this conflict will impact our nation’s food security. The price of food is likely to jump substantially in the coming months.
Firstly, the cost of fuel has skyrocketed. Much of the oil that our country depends on has to pass through waters influenced by Iran. At present, the American food system is completely dependent upon petroleum, so these increases will be felt throughout the supply chain. Petroleum is what fuels our country’s planting and harvesting equipment, and it’s what powers the trucks, the trains, the ships, and the planes that move food from one place to another.
Petroleum is also a key ingredient in the chemical fertilizers that help crops to grow in depleted soils. Nearly a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade must pass through Iranian controlled waters. With the Strait of Hormuz all but closed off, fertilizer shipments are being delayed or blocked, causing shortages and price spikes worldwide. Not only does that mean that farmers are facing higher input costs, they’re likely to have lower yields this growing season, leading to a classic supply and demand equation. As is so often the case in our country, it will be poor farmers and poor consumers who pay the greatest price.
To put it plainly, this administration has been playing with fire when it comes to our nation’s food security: from threatening migrant workers, to canceling USDA contracts with farmers, to repealing EPA mandates that limit the use of harmful pesticides. This war is just another way that Americans are being hurt by our politicians’ decisions. Elected officials simply don’t understand the impacts that their choices have on the food system, and they don’t respect what agriculture contributes to this country. Fertilizer isn’t of a high enough dollar value to be of interest to them, so getting it moved through the strait isn’t likely to be a priority. Neither is investing in making American farms more self-sustaining, as evidenced by Congress’s failure to renew the Farm Bill that expired in September, 2025.
Regenerative farms like ours won’t be as severely impacted as large, conventional farms will be. We’ll still feel the crunch of rising input costs, but we’ve provided some insulation for ourselves by relying largely on local resources. We don’t use any chemical fertilizers, opting instead for compost that we produce right on our own property. We operate on a relatively small scale, allowing us to use human labor in the place of machines, which reduces our need for fuel. We source our inputs from as nearby as possible, reducing the cost of freight to bring these goods to our farm. We don’t anticipate this to be a particularly profitable year, but we’ll get through it the way we’ve faced every crisis thrown our way. We’re resilient.
To increase the resiliency of our food system, we as a nation need to look first at our food miles. This refers to the distance that food travels from the place it is produced to the place it is eaten. The average American meal contains ingredients that have traveled between 1,500 and 2,000 miles. We need to stop importing foods that can just as easily be produced in the U.S. We need to scale back, and to look at the things that are available in our regions and local communities. In her book, Animal, Vegetable, Miracle: A Year of Food Life, Barbara Kingsolver says “If every U.S. citizen ate just one meal a week (any meal) composed of locally and organically raised meats and produce we would reduce our country's oil consumption by over 1.1 million barrels of oil every week.” That’s a staggering statistic.
Buying products from local farms isn’t just environmentally sustainable, it’s economically sustainable. Producing food closer to home will reduce our nation’s dependence on fossil fuels and the fragile thing that is international trade. By choosing local, you’re not just getting fresher food, you’re helping to build a food system that can weather global storms and keep your community strong. If you’re interested in shopping more locally, your nearest farmers’ market is a great place to start! In our region, Adirondack Harvest is an incredible resource to help people find markets and producers nearest them. If you’re from elsewhere, we recommend checking out the USDA Local Food Directories as a starting point.
Works Referenced:
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/us-farmers-struggling-to-afford-fertilizer-amid-iran-war.html
https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/03/fertilizer-iran-hormuz-food-crisis
